Tracking Prem Watsa’s Fairfax Financial Holdings Portfolio – Q2 2024 Update (FRFHF)

This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to Prem Watsa’s 13F portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Watsa’s regulatory 13F Form filed on 08/14/2024. Please visit our Tracking Prem Watsa’s Fairfax Financial Holdings Portfolio series to get an idea of his investment philosophy and our previous update for the fund’s moves during Q1 2024.

This quarter, Watsa’s 13F portfolio value decreased from $1.23B to $1.18B. There are 38 securities in the portfolio, but it is concentrated among a few large stakes. The focus of this article is on the larger (greater than 0.5% of the portfolio each) equity holdings. The top three positions are Occidental Petroleum, Orla Mining, and Kennedy-Wilson. Together, they account for ~61% of the entire 13F portfolio.

Note 1: Fairfax Financial’s (OTCPK:FRFHF) (TSX:FFH:CA) 13F holdings only represent a small portion of their overall investment portfolio. The total size as of Q2 2024 was ~$64B, of which ~$7.7B was in cash and short-term positions. FRFHF currently trades at ~$1181 compared to Book Value (Q2 2024) of ~$980 per share. The equity portfolio was 100% hedged starting from around 2003, but those were removed in Q4 2016.

Note 2: Prominent equity allocations not in the 13F report include investments in Greece and India. Greek allocation primarily consists of a ~34% ownership of Eurobank (OTCPK:EGFEY) (OTCPK:EGFEF). Other prominent stakes include Fairfax India (OTCPK:FFXDF) which includes Bangalore International Airport Limited, Thomas Cook India, Poseidon, Stelco Holdings, Go Digit Infoworks, and Quess Corp Limited.

New Stakes:

Under Armour (UA): UA is a 2.38% of the portfolio position purchased this quarter at prices between $6.28 and $7.02 and the stock currently trades well above that range at $8.27.

Meta Platforms (META): The 0.55% META stake was established this quarter at prices between ~$430 and ~$527, and it is now at ~$528.

Note: Meta Platforms is back in the portfolio after a quarter’s gap. A very small 0.52% stake was built during Q4 2022 and Q2 2023 at prices between ~$90 and ~$280. The disposal during the last quarter was at prices between ~$347 and ~$512.

Stake Disposals:

Crescent Capital BDC (CCAP): CCAP was a 2.73% of the portfolio stake purchased in Q1 2020 at prices between $6.21 and $17.10. The position was sold this quarter at prices between $16.48 and $18.78. The stock currently trades at $18.36.

Stake Increases:

Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO): The ~4% of the portfolio stake in VOO was primarily built this quarter at prices between ~$454 and ~$503 and the stock is now above that range at ~$517.

Taiwan Semi (TSM): TSM is now a ~2% position. The original small stake was increased by ~50% this quarter at prices between ~$127 and ~$180. The stock currently trades at ~$171.

Capri Holdings (CPRI): The very small 0.56% CPRI position saw a minor ~7% increase this quarter.

Stake Decreases:

Micron Technology (MU): The original small MU position saw a ~60% stake increase in Q1 2019 at prices between $31 and $44. Q1 2020 saw a ~115% stake increase at prices between $34.50 and $60. That was followed by a whopping ~400% stake increase during Q3 2022 at prices between ~$49 and ~$65. The stake was decreased by 82% in the last quarter at prices between ~$79 and ~$119. This quarter saw the stake almost sold out at prices between ~$107 and ~$153. The stock currently trades at ~$103.

Kept Steady:

Occidental Petroleum (OXY): OXY is now the largest 13F stake at ~32% of the portfolio. It was built during the four quarters through Q2 2023 at prices between ~$57 and ~$67. The stock is now near the low end of that range at $57.24.

Orla Mining (ORLA): ORLA is a ~18% of the portfolio stake purchased during Q3 2022 at prices between ~$2.40 and ~$3.70. Q1 2023 saw a ~45% stake increase at prices between ~$3.85 and ~$4.90. That was followed with another ~30% increase in the next quarter at prices between ~$3.90 and ~$4.85. The position was increased by 56% during Q3 2023 at prices between ~$3.57 and ~$4.76. That was followed by another ~20% increase in the next quarter at prices between ~$2.70 and ~$3.50. The last quarter also saw a 48% stake increase at prices between $3.10 and $3.79. The stock currently trades at $4.34.

Note: They control ~18% of the business.

Kennedy-Wilson Holdings (KW): KW stake is a large (top three) ~11% of the 13F portfolio position first purchased in 2010. Q4 2016 saw a ~40% increase at prices between $20 and $23 and that was followed with a ~8% increase in Q1 2018. KW currently trades at ~$11.

Note: They also have warrants that they acquired as part of preferred equity investments made in the 2021-22 timeframe. Their overall ownership stake in the business is ~20% (31.32M shares).

Blackberry Limited (BB): BB stake is now at ~10% of the portfolio. The position was first purchased in 2010 at around $50 for 2M shares. The stake was aggressively built up to 46.7M shares in the following years. Their net cost on a fully converted basis is ~$10 per share, and the stock currently trades at $2.42. There has only been very minor activity in the last eleven years.

Note: In Q4 2013, Fairfax co-sponsored a cash-infusion of $1B through convertible debentures ($10 conversion price earning 6% interest) – they financed $500M of that transaction and the remaining was funded by a consortium of other investment funds. In Q3 2016, those shares were redeemed, and new ones issued ($605M in 3.75% debentures convertible at $10 due 11/13/2020) to the same entities in a private placement. On 9/2/2020, those were redeemed, and new ones issued ($330M in 1.75% debentures convertible at $6 due 11/13/2023). On 11/13/2023, those were redeemed, and new ones issued ($150M in 1.75% debentures convertible at $6 due 2/15/2024 with an optional extension possible to 5/15/2024). Those were redeemed, and new ones issued in January ($175M in 3% debentures convertible at $3.88 due 2/15/2029).

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): GOOG is a 4.23% stake purchased in Q1 2020 at prices between ~$53 and ~$76. There was a ~22% stake increase in Q4 2020 at prices between ~$71 and ~$91. Q4 2023 saw a ~18% reduction at prices between ~$123 and ~$143. The stock currently trades at ~$167.

Franklin Resources (BEN): The 1.89% BEN position was established in Q1 2020 at prices between $15.30 and $26.25, and it is now at $20.94.

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA), Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS), General Motors (GM), Helmerich & Payne (HP), Intel Corp. (INTC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Merck (MRK), and Pfizer Inc. (PFE): These small (less than ~2% of the portfolio each) stakes were kept steady this quarter.

The spreadsheet below highlights changes to Watsa’s 13F stock holdings in Q2 2024:

Source: John Vincent. Data constructed from Fairfax Financials’ 13F filings for Q1 2024 and Q2 2024.

Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.