Crude oil slips lower; underlying tone positive on Middle East tensions

Investing.com — Oil prices slipped lower Monday, consolidating after recent hefty gains as the conflict in the Middle East continued to raise concerns about disruptions in supply from the world’s biggest oil producing region.

By 09:20 ET (13.20 GMT), the futures traded 0.2% lower at $86.19 a barrel, while the contract dropped 0.2% to $90.73.

Fears of widening Middle East conflict prompt gains

Last week saw both benchmarks climbing nearly 6% on Friday, posting their highest daily percentage gains since April. For the week, Brent advanced 7.5% while WTI climbed 5.9%.

Markets are on edge, looking for any signs of the Israel-Hamas war sparking a broader conflict in the Middle East, potentially hitting production in this key region.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday vowed to “demolish Hamas,” as his troops prepared for a ground assault on the Gaza strip, in  the wake of a series of deadly strikes by the Palestine militant group Hamas against Israeli border towns.

“We are on the verge of the abyss in the Middle East,” United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned in a statement Sunday, while Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian warned that Tehran could not simply stay an observer of the crisis if “the Zionist aggressions do not stop.”

Iran is the world’s fifth-largest producer of oil, and the U.S. could tighten sanctions against Tehran if it was to offer overt assistance to Hamas.

“Uncertainty and concern over the escalation of the Israel-Hamas war continue to support the oil market. In recent days, Iran has warned about the risk of a wider conflict, while there are reports that Saudi Arabia has frozen talks to normalize relations with Israel,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

U.S. sanctions could tighten market further

Providing a further boost to the market was the decision last week of the U.S. to place sanctions on a couple of companies which it claims shipped Russian oil above the US$60/bbl G-7 price cap while using US-based shipping services.

“This is the first time we have seen the G-7 price cap enforced, which will raise fears that it will become more difficult to ship Russian oil and tighten the market up further,” ING added. 

Chinese growth data due this week

However, despite these positive drivers, speculators remain reluctant to jump into the market. The latest positioning data shows that speculators reduced their net long positions in the ICE (NYSE:) Brent contract by over 65,000 lots over the last reporting week, with the move largely driven by longs liquidating.

The lowered its forecast for growth in oil demand in 2024, citing likely harsher global economic conditions.

Of particular interest will be news about economic growth in the world’s largest oil importer, China, with third-quarter data due later this week. Growth is expected to have deteriorated further through the quarter, pointing to a weak outlook for fuel demand in the country.