Pro Research: Wall Street eyes Tesla’s strategic roadmap

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Market Performance and Strategy

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:), the electric vehicle (EV) and clean energy leader, has continued to demonstrate robust performance in 2023. Despite facing a challenging landscape, Tesla’s stock has remained resilient, with a closing price of $256.61 as per the latest Wedbush analysis. The company’s U.S. market share has seen a decline, slipping below 50% for the first time, amidst intensifying competition and shifting market dynamics. Wedbush Securities maintains an OUTPERFORM rating for Tesla and retains the 12-month price target at $350, reflecting strong delivery data, especially from China, and expectations of market share gains and margin stabilization in 2024. Tesla’s delivery estimates for 2023 are projected at 1.8 million units, with a potential increase to 2.2 to 2.3 million units in 2024, driven by a 25%-30% year-over-year growth, largely attributed to robust Model Y sales in China and Europe.

Tesla’s strategic pricing decisions, including earlier price cuts, have successfully driven volumes and are expected to contribute to improved margins. Auto Gross Margin (GM) is anticipated to return above the 20% threshold during 2024. The company’s vertical integration and rapid growth are central to its strategy, and while Tesla may face pressure on sales and margins without a new high-volume offering until 2026, the expected stabilization of battery raw material prices could help maintain flat margins year-over-year in 2024. Wedbush also highlights Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities and AI training as additional value drivers for the company’s growth story.

Product Breakdown and Launches

Tesla’s product lineup continues to evolve, with the Cybertruck and a potential sub $30k vehicle announcement expected within the next 6 to 9 months, signaling the company’s commitment to expanding its product offerings in the longer term. The Cybertruck, while seen as a “halo” product with a small addressable market, is not expected to significantly impact gross margins but aims to attract consumers to Tesla’s mainstream vehicles. The refreshed Model 3, known as Project Highland, has received positive initial feedback and is expected to boost demand, while the development of the Model 2 is on track. By 2030, approximately 20% of autos are estimated to be EV-based, with Tesla poised to lead this transformation.

Regulatory and Macro Factors

The regulatory environment continues to be a significant factor for Tesla, with the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the United States anticipated to benefit the company. However, macroeconomic uncertainties, such as rising interest rates and geopolitical issues, have led Tesla to adopt a cautious approach to ramping up production at its Austin and Berlin Gigafactories, reflecting a strategic response to the current market conditions.

Analyst Outlooks and Projections

Analyst outlooks for Tesla remain varied. Bernstein maintains an Underperform rating with a price target of $150.00, citing demand issues and skepticism regarding future volume growth and margin improvement. Morgan Stanley holds an Overweight rating with a price target of $380.00, emphasizing Tesla’s diverse revenue streams and strong long-term Free Cash Flow (FCF) growth potential. RBC Capital Markets has adjusted its price target to $300.00 while maintaining an Outperform rating, reflecting a conservative adjustment to delivery estimates and a valuation influenced by long-term growth prospects in autonomous driving technologies. Piper Sandler has upgraded Tesla to Overweight with a new price target of $295.00, highlighting record production and delivery estimates for Q4, with expected annualized production exceeding 2M vehicles. Wedbush Securities upholds a $350 price target, citing Tesla’s potential for market share gains and margin stabilization.

Bear Case

Can Tesla maintain its market dominance amid growing competition?

Tesla’s market dominance is increasingly challenged as competition in the EV space intensifies. The company’s share of the U.S. EV market has dropped significantly, raising concerns about slowing demand for Tesla’s products and increased competition. Tesla also faces the loss of half of the US Federal Tax Credit for some models, which could impact demand. Additionally, production targets for Model 3/Y are critical; any bottlenecks could have negative impacts, as highlighted by the potential risks of production bottlenecks at Fremont/Shanghai and regulatory or production issues in Gigafactory 3.

Will macroeconomic headwinds derail Tesla’s growth trajectory?

Macroeconomic headwinds continue to pose concerns for Tesla, potentially impacting its production and sales. The strategic plant expansions and modifications may be affected by these headwinds, potentially impacting Tesla’s growth trajectory. There is also uncertainty due to potential significant push in the last two weeks of the quarter, influenced by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) pull-forward.

Bull Case

How will Tesla’s cost reduction strategies impact its profitability?

Ongoing cost reduction strategies are expected to improve Tesla’s profit margins, despite the recent necessity for price cuts. Tesla’s gigacasting technology and the anticipated benefits from the IRA are likely to enhance production efficiency, providing a competitive edge in manufacturing.

What is the potential impact of Tesla’s upcoming product launches?

While the Cybertruck and other growth initiatives are on the horizon, the small addressable market for the Cybertruck and no new high-volume offering until 2026 may limit Tesla’s growth potential. Tesla Energy, particularly stationary batteries, is expected to contribute to the company’s long-term growth. Additionally, Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities and AI advancements are seen as incremental value drivers for Tesla’s growth story.

SWOT Analysis

Strengths:

– Dominant position in the EV market, though recently challenged.

– Strong demand and pricing power for products, with strategic price adjustments indicating robust demand.

– Technological advancements, including AI and supercomputing capabilities.

Weaknesses:

– Investor wariness around broad EV adoption and demand constraints.

– Production challenges and uncertain margin trajectory with potential negative EPS revisions.

Opportunities:

– Expansion into more capital-light businesses and regulatory benefits from the IRA.

– Growth initiatives such as Cybertruck and Model 2, with the latter potentially being a sub $30k vehicle.

Threats:

– Intense competition from other automakers and macroeconomic uncertainties.

– Risks associated with new technologies and product ramps.

Analyst Targets

– Morgan Stanley: Overweight, $380 (December 14, 2023).

– Bernstein: Underperform, $150 (December 08, 2023).

– Deutsche Bank: Buy, $275 (November 14, 2023).

– RBC Capital Markets: Outperform, $300 (December 18, 2023).

– Baird: Outperform, $300 (September 26, 2023).

– Barclays: Equal Weight, $260 (December 18, 2023).

– Piper Sandler: Overweight, $295 (December 26, 2023).

– Goldman Sachs: Neutral, $235 (October 19, 2023).

– Citi Research: Neutral, $255 (October 20, 2023).

– Evercore ISI: In Line, $180 (October 19, 2023).

– Wedbush Securities: Outperform, $350 (December 27, 2023).

The timeframe used for this article ranges from September to December 2023.

InvestingPro Insights

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) has been a standout in the electric vehicle industry, not only for its innovative products but also for its financial performance. According to real-time data from InvestingPro, Tesla has shown impressive revenue growth over the last twelve months as of Q3 2023, with a 28.13% increase, outpacing many competitors in the Automobiles industry. The company’s market capitalization stands at a robust $815.74 billion, reflecting investor confidence in its business model and future prospects.

Two notable InvestingPro Tips for Tesla include its high return on invested capital, indicating efficient use of capital to generate profits, and its strong liquidity position, with liquid assets exceeding short-term obligations. These factors are critical for investors considering Tesla’s ability to sustain its growth and navigate the competitive landscape of the EV market.

InvestingPro subscribers can access a wealth of additional insights to inform their investment decisions. There are currently 18 additional InvestingPro Tips listed for Tesla, covering various aspects from stock volatility to analyst profitability predictions. For those looking to deepen their research, an InvestingPro subscription is now on a special New Year sale, offering up to 50% off. Plus, use the coupon code research23 to get an additional 10% off a 2-year InvestingPro+ subscription.

With a P/E Ratio (Adjusted) as of the last twelve months of Q3 2023 at 75.59, Tesla is trading at a high earnings multiple, which might be a point of consideration for value-oriented investors. However, the company’s strong return on assets of 12.76% during the same period suggests that Tesla is effectively converting its asset base into profits. The forward-looking nature of the EV market, coupled with Tesla’s consistent performance, makes it a company to watch closely in the investment community.

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