Fed officials more worried about cutting rates too fast than moving too slow, minutes show

“A couple” of officials pointed out that there were downside risks to the economy in holding “an overly restrictive stance for too long.”

Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said he was worried the Fed’s stance “could turn a soft landing into a bumpier one.”

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“If the central bank waits for clear signs that the labor market, or the broader economy, is deteriorating, they will be behind the curve,” Sweet said in a note to clients.

The tone of the minutes was one of caution toward inflation, even though there had been progress over the previous six months.

“Some participants noted the risks that progress toward price stability could stall,” the minutes said.

Officials said that there was uncertainty over how long a restrictive policy stance needed to be maintained.

At the Jan. 30-31 meeting, the Fed decided to keep its benchmark interest rate in a range of 5.25% to 5.5%.

The voting Fed members said they did not expect it would be appropriate to cut the target rate until they had “gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.”

Fed Chair Jerome Powell effectively took a March rate cut off the table in his press conference after the January meeting.

Economists are now debating whether the first rate cut will come in May or in June.

Traders in derivative markets see a 30% chance of a May cut and an 80% chance of a June move. They see four quarter-point cuts by the end of the year.

Prior to the Fed’s January meeting, market participants had expected six rate cuts beginning in March.

Some commentators, notably former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, said they see a small chance that the next move will be a rate hike.

Uncertainty was also a theme of the minutes.

Officials saw the risk that demand might be stronger than expected.

Several mentioned the risks that financial conditions “were or could” become less restrictive, which could add to growth and cause progress on inflation to stall.

But they also noted downside risks from geopolitical risks and weaker household balance sheets.

Some officials held out the hope that the the data might cooperate, with stronger growth and weaker inflation ahead.

The Fed’s staff put some weight on the possibility that further progress on inflation could take longer than expected.