‘It’s where we are politically’: Trump shooting takes US to the brink

Donald Trump was recovering at his Bedminster golf club in New Jersey on Sunday morning, after the assassination attempt that nearly killed him less than twenty four hours earlier at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. 

More than 200 miles south, in Washington DC, Joe Biden was meeting with his top advisers in the White House Situation Room to weigh his own response to a shooting that could change the trajectory of American politics — and the world. 

Across the country, Republicans and Democrats were reeling from the latest burst of political violence to rock the country, renewing fears that American democracy is again boiling over: a cauldron of tension, anger and toxicity, like it was in the days after the January 6 2021 attack on the US Capitol.

The assassination attempt “will be connected, inevitably, in people’s minds, not just to the shooter and even to the candidate, but to the broader culture”, said Julian Zelizer, a professor of political history at Princeton University.

In the immediate aftermath, the attempted assassination emboldened Trump and appeared to give him new momentum in the White House race — at a time when world leaders were already adjusting to the prospect of his second presidency, some with alarm, others with satisfaction.

The image of a bloodied Trump pumping his fist in the air as he was rushed away by Secret Service has already become a totemic — even messianic — symbol of his political comeback after his flood of legal problems including a criminal conviction in New York earlier this year. 

The former president already has the edge over Biden in polling ahead of the November general election, both nationally and in most of the pivotal battleground states.

Recently, Trump has benefited from Biden’s disastrous performance in last month’s presidential debate, as well as court rulings that helped delay federal trials over his handling of classified documents and efforts to overturn the last election.

Now, Trump’s allies believe the attacks will reinforce his electoral appeal, making the Republican base more determined to vote for him and drawing sympathy from independent and swing voters.

“In recent months, President Trump has benefited from more passionate and engaged followers than the Biden campaign, but the shooting will turn that intensity gap into a chasm,” veteran pollster Frank Luntz wrote on X on Sunday.

Potentially just as important, believe people close to Trump, Biden and the Democrats may now struggle to attack him on the campaign trail. Within hours of the shooting, the president’s campaign had suspended some advertising.

“A major thread of Joe Biden’s campaign was talking about Trump being a threat to democracy,” said Bryan Lanza, a former Trump adviser who is still close to the former president’s campaign.

“Now Biden can’t use that rhetoric any more. If he doesn’t have that rhetoric, and he has a record of failure in addressing inflation, failure in addressing immigration, failure in preventing wars abroad, what message does he have?”

Trump’s attempted assassination occurred just ahead of the Republican national convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin this week, where he will be crowned as the party’s presidential nominee — and anointed in his supporters’ mind as a political fighter and survivor for the ages.

“A lot of people love this man. He’s one of the most strong people I’ve ever met. He has an ability to absorb punishment like anybody I’ve ever met. Obviously, God is not through with President Trump,” Lindsey Graham, the South Carolina Republican senator, told NBC on Sunday.

Alongside this sense of divine intervention from some Republicans came darker threats — and rage. One close Trump ally said that people in the former president’s camp were as “upset” as they were defiant.

There was “growing anger” at the Secret Service for failing to secure the rooftop used by the alleged assassin for his lethal attack. Several Republicans close to Trump, including Ohio Senator JD Vance, a possible vice-presidential pick, squarely blamed Biden for fomenting the attack by proclaiming Trump a threat to American democracy. Mike Collins, a Republican House member, even wrote on social media that Biden had “sent the orders”.

Trump has not joined in those accusations for now. “It is more important than ever that we stand United, and show our True Character as Americans, remaining Strong and Determined, and not allowing Evil to Win,” Trump said on his Truth Social media platform. He said he was still planning to travel to Wisconsin on Sunday.

Nikki Haley, who attacked Trump in the Republican primary for leaving a trail of “chaos” in the party’s politics, accepted a late invitation to speak at the Republican convention.

But Trump may still fail to capitalise if he does not keep his reaction measured — a plausible scenario given his political history of preferring to rile up his base rather than appealing to the centre.

In Washington, Democrats appealed for calm. Democrats refrained from criticising Trump’s inflammatory comments over the years, and vows for retribution against his political opponents, saying the tone of US politics needed to change generally.

“We have to reduce the rhetoric and the tone. I’d urge folks to turn off their phones, and get off of social media today, and take some time with your family, and reflect on who we are as a nation and who we want to be,” Chris Coons, the Democratic senator from Delaware, told NBC.

Biden, who has been battling a rebellion from Democrats demanding he bow out of the presidential race in favour of a younger candidate, was set to speak to the country in a primetime Sunday night Oval Office address — an opportunity for him to project leadership and unity at a moment of national crisis. There were no new Democratic calls for him to step down since the assassination attempt.

But at a time when US politics is so tense and the rhetoric so aggressive, it is far from clear how long any tentative truce between the right and the left can last.

Dark fears that the rematch between Trump and Biden will be marred by more violence — either in the months that remain till the vote or after it — were rampant on Sunday.

“Violence happens more than we think . . . it’s a dangerous part of where we are politically,” Zelizer said. “These are climactic moments when that violence gets incredibly dangerous, and should be a reminder to everyone how bad this can get.”