Czech central bank expected to keep 50-bp rate cut pace: Reuters poll By Reuters

By Jason Hovet

PRAGUE (Reuters) – The Czech National Bank is likely to deliver another 50-basis-point interest rate cut next week, with a weaker crown and remaining price pressures tempering thoughts of quicker monetary easing, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

Policymakers delivered rate cuts of 25 and 50 basis points, in December and February respectively, in an easing cycle that reduced borrowing costs from more than two-decade highs.

While inflation has come down quickly – and hit the central bank’s 2% target last month for the first time since 2018 – prices are still rising fast in services and the crown is weaker than policymakers had assumed.

Citing some of these reasons, central bankers in the past week have said the easing cycle would be gradual and cautious, prompting markets to scale back bets on a bigger interest rate cut.

“Elevated and stronger non-tradable core CPI growth in February, in our view, moved this balance of risks in favour of a 50-bp cut instead of 75 bps,” Citi economist Jaromir Sindel said.

All 14 analysts in a Reuters poll forecast the central bank’s seven-member board would agree on a 50-basis-point reduction at its March 20 meeting, taking the two-week repo rate to 5.75%.

The median forecast in the poll expects the key rate to stand at 3.50% by the end of 2024, versus a previous expectation of 4.00%.

The Czech crown fell to two-year lows beyond 25.50 to the euro in February after an acceleration in the rate-cutting pace, but it has since rebounded to 25.20-25.30, helped by central bankers’ message of gradual easing.

Policymaker Jan Kubicek told Reuters this week the weakened crown – which is below central bank assumptions of an exchange rate of 24.70 in the first quarter – has delivered some monetary easing and that the bank could continue with a 50-bp reduction.