Instant view: China’s soybean and copper imports fall on year, crude oil up

(Reuters) – China’s exports and imports shrank at a slower pace for a second month in September, customs data showed on Friday, adding to the recent signs of a gradual stabilisation in the world’s second-biggest economy thanks to a raft of policy support measures.

Outbound shipments in September declined 6.2% from a year ago, following a drop of 8.8% in August, and beating economists’ forecast for a 7.6% fall in a Reuters poll.

Thanks to gradual recovery in domestic demand, imports also fell at a slower pace, down 6.2%. They missed the 6.0% decline forecast in the poll, but came in better than a 7.3% contraction in August.

KEY POINTS:

* Soybeans: September imports at 7.15 mmt, down 23.6% m/m and 7.3% y/y

* Crude oil: September imports at 45.74 mmt, down 13.4% m/m but up 14% y/y

* Iron ore: September imports at 101.18 mmt, down 4.9% m/m but up 1.47% y/y

* Copper: September imports at 480,426 mt, up 1.5% m/m but down 5.8% y/y

Preliminary table of commodity trade data

Below are comments from analysts on the commodities data.

COMMENT ON CRUDE OIL

EMMA (OTC:) LI, CHINA OIL MARKETS ANALYST AT VORTEXA IN SINGAPORE

“The month-on-month decline in September crude imports is mostly driven by Saudi and Russian volumes, as oil majors cut Saudi nominations and accelerated crude destocking, while teapot refiners continue pivoting away from pricy Russian oil.”

COMMENT ON COPPER

HE TIANYU, SHANGHAI-BASED ANALYST AT CRU

“The monthly increase came as import conditions improved in September, more flew from the bonded warehouses into China. And, the yearly decline was attributed to higher interest rates in the United States, making it more expensive for copper financing and lowering demand for imports.”

COMMENT ON SOYBEANS

ROSA WANG, ANALYST AT SHANGHAI-BASED AGRO-CONSULTANCY JCI

“Imports fell from a year ago partly due to poor crush margin, slow presales of soymeal, poor pig margin and bearish outlook on global soybean price. But it is higher than our estimates of 6.8 million metric tons, likely because delayed cargoes have finally passed customs clearance.”

DARIN FRIEDRICHS, CO-FOUNDER OF SHANGHAI-BASED SITONIA CONSULTING

“It’s a relatively low number for September and this could set up for tightness in supplies in the fourth quarter. The US is facing logistics issues due to low levels on the Mississippi River and the USDA lowered the US soybean yield in their recent report.”

COMMENT ON IRON ORE

CAI YONGZHENG, NANJING-BASED DIRECTOR OF JIANGSU FUSHI DATA RESEARCH INSTITUTE

“China’s iron ore imports in October is estimated at around 99 million metric tons due to falling demand as some mills in western regions cut their steel production amid losses.”

LINKS:

For details, see the official Customs website

(www.customs.gov.cn)

BACKGROUND:

China is the world’s biggest importer and top buyer of coal, iron ore and soybeans.