Treasury yields mildly mixed ahead of Fed decision

Benchmark U.S. bond yields were little changed early Wednesday as traders kept their powder dry ahead of the Federal Reserve policy decision later in the day.

What’s happening

The yield on the 2-year Treasury
TMUBMUSD02Y,
4.861%
fell by 1.6 basis points to 4.862%. Yields move in the opposite direction to prices.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury
TMUBMUSD10Y,
3.893%
retreated less than 1 basis point to 3.887%.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury
TMUBMUSD30Y,
3.947%
rose less than 1 basis point to 3.940%.

What’s driving markets

The Federal Reserve will deliver its policy decision at 2 p.m. Eastern, followed half an hour later by a press conference held by Chair Jay Powell.

Markets are pricing in a 98.9% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

The chances of a further 25 basis point hike to a range of 5.50% to 5.75% at the September or November meetings are priced at 20.6% and 32.8%, respectively.

Mohamed El-Erian, adviser to Allianz and Gramercy, questioned why the central bank had skipped a hike last month.

The central bank is not expected to take its Fed funds rate target back down to around 5% until May 2024, according to 30-day Fed Funds futures.

U.S. economic updates set for release on Wednesday include new home sales for June, due at 10 a.m. Eastern.

The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan will deliver policy decisions on Thursday and Friday, respectively.

What are analysts saying

“[S]ince a hike today is almost fully priced in, the bigger question for markets will be if the statement and the press conference signal anything about the likelihood of further rate hikes ahead,” said Henry Allen, strategist at Deutsche Bank.

“[O]ur U.S. economists think that there’s limited downside from Chair Powell delivering a hawkish-leaning message. Even after the very positive CPI print, he’s likely to emphasise that further evidence is needed to be confident that inflation will be tamed. Furthermore, the FOMC themselves signaled in their June dot plot that two further hikes were their baseline by year-end, implying one more after today.”

“Remember as well that there are still two jobs reports and CPI reports ahead of the next meeting – as well as the Jackson Hole gathering – so our economists think Powell is unlikely to provide strong guidance about the outcomes of upcoming meetings,” Allen concluded.

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